CHICAGO — A local groundhog named Woodstock Willie saw retiring weatherman Tom Skilling last week — but he did not see his own shadow, which traditionally means an early spring is on its way.
While Woodstock Willie’s more famous counterpart, Punxsutawney Phil, gets it right only about 40 percent of the time, researchers at Argonne National Laboratory are siding with the groundhogs this year: Spring is coming sooner rather than later, a trend that could be here to stay for Chicagoans.
February has already had near-record warm temperatures — well above its average daytime high of 33 degrees, said Troy Arcomano, a global change fellow at Argonne National Laboratory.
On Thursday and Friday this week, Chicago could see temperatures in the mid-50s, according to the National Weather Service.
One more snowy cold snap is possible in the second half of February, but Chicagaons may have to deal with just rain and thunderstorms as winter turns to spring, Arcomano said.
Above-average temperatures are likely to stick around until then. An El Niño pattern — bringing a flood of warm air off the Pacific Ocean into the continental United States — has been upgraded to a Super El Niño: one of just five in the past 100 years, Arcomano said.
A Super El Niño is classified as three months running at an average of 2 degree Celsius or warmer over the central Pacific Ocean, Arcomano said.
“For us, that means we can continue to expect a warmer pattern,” Arcomano said. “Once we get close to March, it could be time to put the winter jackets away.”
The Argonne National Laboratory is tracking and predicting atmospheric patterns in Chicago through “warehouse-sized supercomputers,” Arcomano said.
The models show groundhogs might be missing their shadows more and more. Climate change in Chicago is leading to “earlier springs, less snowy winters and above-average temperatures,” Arcomano said.
As snow cover melts away in Canada and the Arctic, the cold air making its way down to Chicago each winter will be “less intense,” Arcomano said.
“People think about Chicago for the cold winters,” Arcomano said. “But they’re going to be less brutal over the next decades.”
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